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Release Archives | International Economic Indices January 2012
Decision Analyst’s U.S. & UK Economic Indices
Begins 2012 With A Bang
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index jumped 4 points
in January to kick off the new year. The Index rose from 93 in December 2011 to
97 in January 2012. The UK Economic Index increased 3 points from 80 in December
2011 to 83 in January 2012. For most of 2011, the U.S. Economic Index’s
trend has been flat to down slightly. The strong uptick to start January suggests
some underlying vitality in the U.S. economy. If this uptick continues for 2 or
3 months, it could be a harbinger of faster economic growth later in 2012. For
the UK, while its still struggle economically, the Index offers a small glimmer
of optimism for 2012.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading indicators for their respective
countries and tend to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months in
each respective country. The following graphs show the U.S. and the UK Economic
Indices for the past 3 years, respectively:
“A real economic recovery might just be on the horizon,” said Jerry
W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The number of positive economic
signs is growing, despite the fact that most people in the U.S. continue to experience
economic headwinds. High unemployment (including long-term discouraged workers)
continues to reduce consumer buying power and negatively affect consumer confidence.
Lack of credit and lack of capital for small businesses are major barriers to
growth. High debt levels, public and private, are reducing the funds available
for spending and investment. Lastly, gridlock in Washington, indecision in Europe,
and slowdowns in China are making major corporations reluctant to make major strategic
investments,” said Thomas.
International Economic Indices
In Europe, despite its debt issues, the Italy Index increased 4 points from
75 in December 2011 to 79 in January 2012, while Spain dropped 2 points from 78
in December 2011 to 76 in January 2012. In South America, Chile improved 1 point
from 98 in December 2011 to 99 in January 2012; meanwhile Brazil dropped 4 points
from 125 in December 2011 to 121 in January 2012. In Asia, China improved 4 points
from 121 in December 2011 to 125 in January 2012, and India increased 3 points
from 115 in December 2011 to 118 in January 2012.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the past
10 years are below.
Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are a 3-month moving average to
smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the
current month with the 2 previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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