Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index jumped 4 points in January to kick off the new year. The Index rose from 93 in December 2011 to 97 in January 2012. For most of 2011, the U.S. Economic Index’s trend has been flat to down slightly. The strong uptick to start January suggests some underlying vitality in the U.S. economy. If this uptick continues for 2 or 3 months, it could be a harbinger of faster economic growth later in 2012. The U.S. Economic Index tends to anticipate overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The graphs below show the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years and past 10 years, respectively:

“A real economic recovery might just be on the horizon,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The number of positive economic signs is growing, despite the fact that most people in the U.S. continue to experience economic headwinds. High unemployment (including long-term discouraged workers) continues to reduce consumer buying power and negatively affect consumer confidence. Lack of credit and lack of capital for small businesses are major barriers to growth. High debt levels, public and private, are reducing the funds available for spending and investment. Lastly, gridlock in Washington, indecision in Europe, and slowdowns in China are making major corporations reluctant to make major strategic investments,” said Thomas.

The West South Central Division appears to have the strongest economy with an Index of 100. The South Atlantic Division appears to be the weakest, with a score of 92. (See map below.)

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. China, Brazil, and India appear to have the highest scores, while France, Italy, and Spain have the lowest scores. In Europe, Germany has the highest score of 103, while France is at the bottom with a score of 75. In South America, Argentina has the lowest Index with a score of 94.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

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Cristi Allen
Publicity
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Arlington, TX 76011

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