Home |
Press
Room |
Press Release Archives | International
Economic Indices June 2011
For Immediate Release
July 7, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index in June
Unchanged;
The UK Economic Index Declines
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index remains at
95 for June 2011, the same as in May. The Index has moved sideways or trended
slightly lower over the past 6 or 7 months, suggesting economic sluggishness
in the second half of 2011. The UK Economic Index has declined 2 points from
82 in May to 80 in June. Since the Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading
indicators for their respective countries (tending to foreshadow overall economic
activity by 6 to 12 months in each respective country), the Index is forecasting
slow economic growth for the balance of 2011. Here is the U.S. Economic Index
for the past 3 years.
“The 10-year graph of the U.S. Economic Index reveals the severity and
the duration of the recession. While it is evident that the Index bottomed out
in early 2009, the long-term view of the Index reveals that the U.S. economy
has not regained its prerecession levels. It’s also instructive to remember
that the U.S. Economic Index stood at 125 in the late 1990s.” said Jerry
W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. economy has been
comparatively weak for a whole decade.”
“The Index is predicting a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the second
half of 2011,” said Thomas. “The economic recovery is fragile, and
rising prices threaten to tip the U.S. back into recession. If gasoline and
energy prices decline during the second half of 2011, that would be a significant
stimulus to the economy."
"High unemployment continues to be a persistent drag on the U.S. economy,"
said Thomas. "Many state, county, and city governments are cutting employees
to balance budgets. The U.S. Federal Government will make job cuts in the second
half. Small businesses are doing slightly better, but they are not planning
to hire many new employees—at least not yet.”
International Economic Indices
Germany has the highest Index in Europe with a score of 103, while France lags
far behind, with an Index score of 79. In South America, Brazil is leading the
way with an Index of 127, while Argentina trails with an Index of 96. In Asia,
China leads with an Index of 127, while Australia lags behind with an Index
of 98.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the
past 10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Peru, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
Visit our Logos & Images page for photographs and logos, if needed.
