Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index April 2011

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For Immediate Release
May 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered 93 for April 2011, a 1-point decline from March’s Index of 94. For the past 6 months, the U.S. Economic Index has gradually declined, dropping 6 points since November 2010. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months). Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.

Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.

“The persistent decline of the U.S. Economic Index over the past six months is worrisome. The Index is predicting a sluggish economy for the balance of 2011, with growing risks of recession.” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The recovery is fragile, and rising prices for food and energy are sapping consumer buying power. Any major shock to the U.S. economy would easily tip it back into a recession. The unemployment rate remains high. Many state, county, and city governments are cutting employees to balance their budgets. Small businesses are doing slightly better, but still struggling to get access to credit at reasonable rates. Then there are the debt and deficit problems of the U.S. Government—and Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Japan, etc.”

International Index

The table on the next page compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Germany is leading the recovery in Europe with an Index of 105, while France and Spain lag far behind, each with an Index of 78. In South America, Brazil is leading the way with an Index of 118, and in Asia, China leads with an Index of 129.

Census Divisions

The West South Central Division has the only Economic Index score above 100, with a 101. The South Atlantic has an Index of 93 and the East South Central has an Index of 96. (The majority of the data collection came before the tornadoes hit the Southeast on April 27.) Meanwhile, the Pacific Division has the lowest score with an 89. (See map below.)

 

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product research, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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