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Economic Indices February 2011
For Immediate Release
March 8, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Remains
Unchanged in February 2011; Brazil’s Index Increased
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
95 for February 2011, the same as the previous month. Throughout the past 12
months, the Economic Index has plodded along, fluctuating between 94 and 96
most of the months. Brazil had the highest one-month increase of the countries
reported, increasing 5 points from 126 in January to 131 in February. Canada
and Italy had the largest one-month decrease; both declined 3 points (Canada
declined from 100 in January to 97 in February and Italy declined from 92 in
January to 89 in February). Since the Decision Analyst Economic Indices are
leading indicators for their respective countries (tending to foreshadow overall
economic activity by 6 to 12 months in each respective country), the Index is
forecasting slow economic growth for the balance of 2011.
“The Economic Index continues to predict economic expansion during 2011,
although the pace of growth will be marginal. Our data suggest that the Bureau
of Labor Statistics might be under-reporting inflation. If this is true, some
of the reported U.S. economic growth might be overstated. The U.S. economy continues
to operate in a high-risk environment, with commodity prices soaring, continuing
layoffs in the public sector, lingering subprime problems, and a persistent
lack of credit for many small businesses,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “The troubles in the European banking system related
to potential sovereign defaults are another major risk for the U.S. (and world)
economy.”
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the
past 10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Russian Federation, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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