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Economic Indices January 2011
For Immediate Release
February 3, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s International Economic Indices
Whimper at the Start of 2011
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index started 2011
with an Index of 95, a decrease of one point from December. Overall, the U.S.
Economic Index spent the majority of 2010 fluctuating between 94 and 96; the
January 2011 Index is just one point higher than the January 2010 Index (94).
By comparison, the Economic Index for Germany grew 11 points in 2010, from 98
in January 2010 to 109 in January 2011. Meanwhile, the Economic Index for China
shrunk 11 points, from 136 in January 2010 to 125 in January 2011. Since the
Economic Indices are leading indicators for their individual countries (tending
to foreshadow, overall, that country’s economic activity by six to 12
months), the Index is forecasting an expanding economy for 2011 for most countries
reported. The Index is also indicating that growth in 2011 will be slow and
fragile.
“The Index and its component measures are predicting a slow-growth economy
in 2011. Unemployment continues to be a major problem (our tracking data indicates
an unemployment rate around 16%, similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’
U-6 measure of unemployment). The housing market continues to be a major risk
factor as many homes are still in the foreclosure process. With weak tax revenues,
state and local governments will be making tough choices (higher taxes and/or
reduced services) in 2011 to balance their budgets. Rising commodity prices
are major risks to the 2011 economy, especially increasing prices for food and
energy,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst.
"The world financial system appears to be moving forward—but on
crutches. There is a high risk of financial meltdowns in 2011, especially in
Europe, and these risks could dampen economic growth in 2011. Despite all of
these headwinds, we think the U.S. economy will continue to slowly improve over
the next 12 months. The European Union remains less than robust,” said
Thomas. "The clouds of financial stress hang over Europe.”
Brazil, China, and India have the highest scores (126, 125 and 119, respectively).
France, Spain, and the United Kingdom have the lowest scores (79, 81 and 81,
respectively). (See graphs below.)
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Russian Federation, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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