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Economic Index
For Immediate Release
August 4, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s International Economic Indices
Signal Slow Growth
Germany Stays The Same While France Improves
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst Economic Index for the U.S. registered
94 in July 2010, a one-point decline from 95 in June 2010. Germany registered
101 in July, the same as in June, and the U.K. has registered 87 for July, a
two-point decline from June. China has registered 130 in July, declining nine
points in six months (from a high of 139 in February). On the positive side,
while still having the lowest Index of the countries reported, France has registered
84 in July, a nine-point increase in two months (from a low of 75 in May). Since
the Decision Analyst Economic Indices tend to foreshadow their countries’
economies by six to 12 months, it continues to signal that economic growth will
be sluggish for the second half of 2010 and into the first half of 2011.
“The Economic Indices for the U.S., U.K, and Germany have been essentially
flat for the past few months,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of
Decision Analyst. “This suggests that economic growth in coming months
will range from 0% to 2% or so, on average for those countries. It’s difficult
to see any forces or variables that might produce strong economic growth in
the next year. Many consumers and small businesses are constrained by lack of
credit and lack of jobs. Business investment will be trending up because of
the length of this downturn (machines wear out and must be replaced), but that
alone will not be sufficient to stimulate strong economic growth. Another drag
on the economy will be cutbacks in spending by countries, counties, school districts,
cities, and states/provinces over the next two years,” said Thomas. “On
balance, the global economy should stay on the plus side, but a modest double-dip
is possible.”
Below are the International Economic Indices for the past three years.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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