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For Immediate Release August 7, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index has been essentially flat for the past four months, at the 92 to 93 level, and significantly higher than its low point in January and February 2009. Since the U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator that anticipates changes in gross domestic product by 9 to 12 months, the Index is indicating a bottoming out of the recession by the end of 2009. However, the recovery is likely to be slow and fragile.

“While the Index is clearly pointing to an upturn in U.S. economic activity in coming months, the Index is also signaling that the recovery will be slow and anemic throughout 2010, despite the stimulative policies of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Government’s fiscal stimulus,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. economy is fragile, and any negative shock would quickly lead to decay in the economy. For example, if energy prices should skyrocket in coming months, or if unemployment should continue to rise rapidly, or if consumers aggressively restrain consumption expenditures, the recession could quickly worsen,” according to Thomas.

Census Divisions

The West North Central and the West South Central divisions appear to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. That is, the area from North Dakota and Minneapolis south to Texas and Louisiana is doing much better than the remaining parts of the U.S. The whole Western portion of the U.S. is struggling (Pacific and Mountain). The East North Central division and the Middle Atlantic division (i.e., automotive-related areas) appear to be suffering the greatest economic difficulties, and the South Atlantic Division is relatively weak, as shown below:

Decision Analyst U.S. Census Division Economic Index
(Three-Month Average*)

* The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes.

International Index

The chart on the next page compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Canada is performing about the same as the U.S., while China, Brazil, and India appear to be doing better than most countries. France, Argentina, and Mexico appear to be doing comparatively worse than other countries.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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