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For Immediate Release May 5, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst Economic Index moved up to 88 in March, a three point increase from February. This is the third month the Index has remained flat or moved up. The Economic Index tends to be a leading indicator, usually anticipating changes in gross domestic product by 12 to 18 months.

“The U.S. Economic Index bottomed out in January and February 2009, and it increased significantly in March and April, rising to the highest level in the past year. This upturn in the U.S. Economic Index is signaling the beginning of a recovery by late 2009 or early 2010. The relative flatness of the Index throughout all of 2008 indicates that the U.S. economy will bottom out soon, although the economy might bump along the bottom for some time. Decision Analyst continues to forecast that the U.S. recession is at or near the bottom, and will begin to turn upward by the fourth quarter of 2009,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Consumer confidence will grow slowly, month by month, and this will trigger increases in consumer spending later in 2009, despite rising unemployment for the balance of 2009 and into the first half of 2010. The growth of consumer spending will fuel a slow recovery.”

“Record high and growing unemployment levels, however, will continue to act as a drag on the U.S. economy, as will continuing credit issues, financial scandals, commercial mortgage defaults, credit card problems, and home mortgage defaults. All of these credit-related problems will take two to five years to resolve,” according to Thomas, “and will mean a long, slow recovery, not a rapid bounce back from the downturn.”

Census Divisions

The middle of the U.S. appears to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. The West North Central and the West South Central divisions are doing better than the West Coast or the East Coast. The East North Central (i.e., automotive industry) appears to be suffering the greatest economic difficulties, as shown on the next page:

Decision Analyst U.S. Census Division Economic Index
(Three-Month Average*)

*The Index number for the census regions is a three-month average used to even out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes.

International Index

A comparison of the U.S. Economic Index to the Economic Indices in other countries provides some interesting perspective. Canada is doing about the same as the U.S., and China, Brazil, and India appear to be doing comparatively well. The major countries of the European Union are clearly in a recession and facing difficult times.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is typically conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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