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For Immediate Release September 7, 2001
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
U.S. Economy Reaches Turning Point
Arlington, Texas – The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for August
shows the economy moving upward, compared to May, June and July. The August
tracking data hint at an economic rebound, although one month does not a
recovery make. The Decision Analyst Economic Index numbers reveal that the U.S.
economy has been in a holding pattern for the past eight months, with little
variation from month to month. However, the fact that the Economic Index has
been essentially stable for that period of time is strong evidence that the
economy, while weak, is poised to begin a slow rebuilding. For a variety of
reasons, Decision Analyst believes that slow and steady improvement in the U.S.
economy is upon us. Decision Analyst’s measurement of the U.S. economy
takes place the last ten days of each month and is based on an Internet survey
of several thousand households.
The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index peaked in the spring of 2000, declined
to a slightly lower level in the fall, and then dropped dramatically to a lower
level during the first eight months of 2001, as shown below.
"We are optimistic, based on the August numbers, that slow economic growth
(i.e., the beginning of the upturn) will begin by or during the fourth quarter
of this year," said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst,
Inc. "Predicting the future is always a risky business, but we are
increasingly confident that the worst of the downturn is behind us."
"The improvement in Decision Analyst's Economic Index was consistent across
all geographic areas in the U.S., another factor that boosts our confidence
that a turnaround is at hand," said Thomas.
The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index is based on an Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age and geography. The survey
is conducted over the Internet during the last ten days of each month, and the
index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements,
using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current
U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of consumers. Whenever the
Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an
expanding economy. An index in the 100 to 110 range suggests a stagnant
economy, and an index below 100 generally indicates economic contraction or
recession.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1.800.ANALYSIS (262.5974)
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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